Conditional Probability:

What affect does a condition have on the probability? Let’s compare and find out.
Example: Let’s look at a standard deck of 52 playing cards.
No replacement: What is the probability of getting 2 kings assuming that the first one is not replaced? (Note: There are 4 kings in a deck of cards. And a deck of cards has 52 cards.)
Answer: 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/13*1/17= 1/221

Replacement: What is the probability of getting 2 kings assuming that the first one is replaced?
Answer: 4/52 * 4/52 = 1/13 * 1/13 = 1/169

What difference does it make? Which gives the higher probability?
Initial Post: Make up a similar example to the above problem using (a) with replacement and (b) without replacement. You may use playing cards, or a similar scenario, however be sure that you can represent both with and without replacement. Flipping a coin 10 times is not appropriate because it only represents the “without replacement” condition. Do not solve your own problem – that will be done by your classmates.
Two Response Posts: You will solve both problem posed by two of your classmates. First copy the problem, then show your work explaining how you worked each problem. Once you have solved the problems compare the results. Which situation is more likely? Does replacement make a significant difference?

Do NOT use the numbers in this example post in your post. Please make sure all posts are unique and use different numbers.
It is important to go back and read follow up responses from your instructor.

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